The Final

Finally destination Munich is here! From the 32 teams that were drawn in the group stage at the start of the season, only two are still standing. Indeed it is Bayern Munich and Chelsea that will slug it out on the night of May 19^th at the Allianz Arena for the grandest prize in European club football: the UEFA Champions League trophy. So who will emerge champions? The Reds or The Blues?

At the start of the season when the draw was made, I (as many others did too) pointed out 3 teams that were favorites to lift the trophy: the reigning champions Barcelona, newly crowned Spanish champions Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, the hosts of the final. And true to form, these three giants made it to the last four of the competition. The logical expectation at the time was that two of them would ultimately make it to the final, with most experts predicting an El Clasico of Real versus Barca. I put my money on a Bayern-Barca final. As it turns out the Germans made it alright, but the final would prove too tall an order for the two Spanish powerhouses. Chelsea managed to pull off the improbable and have undoubtedly merited their date with destiny in the final.

Chelsea’s season by all stretch of imagination has been as strange as they come. For the past 8 seasons we have been used to Chelsea challenging for top honors domestically and also proving destructive in Europe. But whoever scripted the Blues’ 2011-12 season must indeed harbor a wicked sense of humor. The season started with the recruitment of Porto’s treble winning manager, the young Andre Villas-Boas. This was seen by many as a bold step and a revolution of sorts but it came to naught. The Portuguese’s futuristic thinking and approach failed miserably to inspire Chelsea’s trusted old guard and by February he was on his way out. By that time Chelsea’s title challenge had long fizzled out and even the prospect of finishing in the lucrative top four places in the league was bleak. In the Champions League, they had huffed and puffed past their group only to be completely destroyed in Naples by a rampaging Napoli in the first leg of the round of 16 knockouts.

Enter Roberto Di Matteo. Having been promoted from being Assistant Manager to the top position albeit as caretaker, the Italian embraced the unenviable task to picking up the pieces, assuring and inspiring the old men and getting the Blue ship back onto safe waters. It seemed impossible, considering the damage that had already been done up to that point. Little did we know that the soft-spoken legend had something up his sleeve. He turned the tide, as the thrilling fight back at the Bridge in the second leg to knock out Napoli exhibited. There was a renewed belief and hunger in the squad once again. The epitome of Di Matteo’s miracles certainly has to be how he marshaled his bruised troops to stage probably the defensive performance of all time to knock out holders Barcelona over the two legs. Simply, legendary stuff that was. Add to the fact that they go to the final as newly crowned FA Cup champions and the disastrous start of the season seems like ages past.

For Bayern Munich, surely if their season was code-named, it would be ‘Operation Home Final’. Even among the big guns at the club, it is an open secret that the Bavarians’ prime objective for the season has been to rule Europe once again. The fact that the final would be staged at their beloved Allianz Arena only served to fuel this already burning desire. In no other instance is this more evident than the manner they annihilated Basel 7-0 in the quarter final second leg at home to overturn a one-goal first leg deficit. The appearance in the final aside, a season like this when FC Hollywood lost the league to Dortmund and got a thorough 5-2 thrashing by the same team in the German Cup final would be viewed as an unacceptable failure but it’s different this time. This only shows how much Bayern badly wants this trophy.

The Germans go in to this match as the favorites definitely, considering European pedigree, the quality of players that will line out for them and of course obviously the fact that they are playing on home turf. It is debatable to say that playing at home is an advantage as with it comes added pressure to perform. In any case since the competition rebranded in 1992, no team has ever won the final at home. Then again Bayern is one of Europe’s biggest teams and big teams rarely lose at home when it really matters. On the issue of pressure, well, the ticket allocations to both sets of fans will be roughly 50-50 hence pressure from home fans won’t count for much.

Both teams go into the final with their back-lines tweaked to some extent due to suspensions and this could be decisive ultimately. Chelsea will be without captain John Terry who was red carded against Barca and Branislav Ivanovic who’s serving a one-match suspension. These two defensive stalwarts have been key for the Blues and their importance cannot be over-emphasized. Apart from their defensive abilities, they both have a knack for scoring vital goals up field, case in point being Ivanovic’s goal against Napoli that sent Chelsea to the quarters. Furthermore, the other two center backs, David Luiz and Gary Cahill are only now coming back from injuries and even if they make the squad, their match fitness for such a high profile match is highly questionable. Bayern too have problems in defence as both Holger Badstuber and David Alaba are suspended. Its Alaba’s absence that will be most felt as throughout this campaign the lively young Austrian has nothing short of sensational with his marauding runs at opposing defences on the left flank. He’s also developed a devastating partnership with Frank Ribery and Bayern will sorely miss that.

The game will be won (and lost) in the midfield. This is quite an overused cliché, I know, but it will be proved right once again. I can confidently note that Bayern’s midfield is far superior to Chelsea’s. And this is where the English have been hardest hit by suspensions. Both Ramires and Raul Meireles accrued their respective second yellow cards at the Camp Nou and hence are out. Honestly it is hard to see how Chelsea will win without Ramires given the kind of breath-taking form he’s been of late. The Brazilian set up Drogba’s goal against Barcelona at the Bridge and went one better in the return leg, starting of the Blues’ fight back with that cheeky chip and goal that confirmed to us that he really is Brazilian and not just on his passport. Meireles on the other hand can play both defensive and attacking roles with equal effectiveness and his absence is really a big blow. For Bayern, Luis Gustavo will miss out. He’s been influential in the middle of the pack imposing his presence and disrupting opposing attacks. It’s a pity all this great talent will be denied an appearance on the big stage.

It will be interesting how the coaches, Jupp Heynckes of Bayern and Roberto Di Matteo of Chelsea will deal with the forced deficiencies. Whether Heynckes will replace Gustavo with Anatoliy Tymoschuk alongside Bastian Schweinsteiger for a more conservative approach or have Toni Kroos drop deep to partner Schweini and Thomas Mueller to play in the ‘hole’ for a more attack minded approach remains to be seen. For Chelsea it would seem that either of Michael Essien and Oriol Romeu might be called upon. Essien is a pale shadow of his former self and so I would fancy Romeu who’s more disciplined, fitter and hungrier.

The attack for both teams if well fed with chances, clear-cut or half, will definitely deliver. Obviously I’m assuming that Di Matteo opts for Didier Drogba, whose big-stage pedigree is well known. Fernando Torres hasn’t done enough to lead the line and should be happy as an impact substitute if needed. For Heynckes, definitely he’ll start with the red hot Mario Gomez who’s simply been scintillating this season. He’s also chasing the top scorer’s accolade, currently headed to Lionel Messi. He will be flanked either by Chelsea old boy ArjenRobben and Franck Ribbery, the duo otherwise affectionately known as ‘Robbery’. The Robbery alone is enough to tear any water-tight defence to shreds and if given an inch, they’ll grab a mile without hesitation. Chelsea will have to be wary, and rightly so.

I see Bayern Munich imposing themselves and dictating the pace of the game, with Chelsea on the back foot, defending in numbers and waiting for the odd opening to launch sporadic but hopefully effective counter attacks. Honestly it is difficult to see Chelsea approaching the game any different. With both defences highly susceptible, and there being nothing much to separate Manuel Neuer and PetrCech, the midfield will be key to winning this. Schweinsteiger who was so brilliant against Real Madrid is coming back to his finest form will be the key player once again. I don’t see Frank Lampard keeping up with the German, I really don’t.

Should the match go to penalties, you know how the Germans fare in penalties. Chelsea fans, I’m sorry but they just never lose and this will be no different. Then again what we’ve learnt this season is never to write off Chelsea. They just seem to get the job done when it really matters. It should be a great final, though not a very open one. Who will win? Well, the Champions League trophy will be staying in Germany before it returns to Wembley next May. All said and done, let’s hope football reigns supreme on Saturday night.